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        劉軍紅:中日韓攜手“耕好自己的田”

        選擇字號:   本文共閱讀 184 次 更新時間:2019-08-22 21:08:38

        進入專題: 中日韓  

        劉軍紅  

           中國外交部日前宣布第九次中日韓外長會議將于21日在北京舉行。屆時,韓國外長康京和、日本外相河野太郎將來京出席,協商三國合作未來,并交換國際地區問題的意見。

           遺憾的是,眼下日韓關系“政冷經涼”,中美關系貿易摩擦,在東北亞形成十字交叉的對立軸,使得中日韓合作面臨前所未有的困難和挑戰。面對新時局,中國既是10+3的主席國,又逢中日韓領導人會議的主席國,需要費些心思,找到新合作契合點,摸索新的合作方式,以新合作來帶動地區關系緩和,推動區內經濟發展。

           20年前,中日韓領導人正是為共同應對危機,與東盟首腦構建“10+3”合作機制,推動形成了獨具東亞特色的產業鏈、價值鏈和文化圈,開啟了不同社會制度、不同發展水平、不同文化文明間的合作典范。如今,作為東亞地區合作的主渠道核心,“中日韓”更要拿出大智大勇來捍衛多邊、開放、自由的貿易體制,抵抗逆全球化和貿易保護主義。

           中日韓三國經濟總量在太平洋西岸舉足輕重,合起來在世界也堪稱一極。2018年中日韓三國對世界出口合計3.8萬億美元,約占世界總出口的20.1%,進口合計3.4萬億美元,約占世界的17.2%。如果中日韓自貿區能成,無疑在世界貿易舞臺上是一支“彪悍的力量”。在自貿區建設上,中日韓采取了開放、公開、不約束的方針,三國不僅在10+3框架下與東盟及其主要成員國達成自貿協定,且與區內外廣泛簽訂了多種類型“自貿協定”,作為世界級的貿易集散地,有效促進了全球自由貿易的擴展。韓國則因與世界三大市場的中美歐同時簽訂了自貿協定,大幅提升了自貿覆蓋率。截至2018年6月底,韓國與中美歐等簽署了15組FTA,FTA覆蓋率達68.2%,堪稱自貿區優等生。日本也選擇性地簽署了若干雙邊經濟伙伴關系協定(EPA),并達成“日歐EPA”和“全面進步的跨太平洋經濟伙伴關系協定”(CPTPP)。同時,三國都積極推進包括東盟+中日韓+澳新印的地區全面經濟伙伴關系協定(RCEP),以及“中日韓自貿區”談判,廣泛構建FTA陣地。中日韓探索的互不約束、積極開放的自由貿易合作機制,與10+3、APEC相互支持,有力地維護了世界貿易組織(WTO)的權威地位,支持了以WTO為主導的多邊自由貿易體系。

           過去20年,中日韓已互為最主要的貿易伙伴,貿易地位均接近美國。如中美韓連續10年成日本貿易伙伴前三。中日韓為核心的亞洲貿易相互依存,快速發展,對世界的進出口已追平歐洲,如2018年亞洲出口總額達6.5萬億美元,接近歐洲的6.9萬億美元,約為北美(2.1萬億美元)的3倍。亞歐出口合計占世界的70%。這意味著以亞歐大陸為依托的“一帶一路”成全球貿易的主戰場,而以投資、發展導向為特點的“一帶一路”也必成全球化的新潮流。近期,美國10年債與2年債收益率倒掛,就反映了美國市場的投資預期收益率已不再具吸引世界投資的魅力。“一帶一路”廣闊天地所釋放的超大規模投資需求,必將演化出前所未有的投資效應。這就決定了今后的區域合作及國際規則的發展方向,不應是向太平洋彼岸漂移,而應扎扎實實立足亞歐大陸。因此,更要防止“耕了別人田,荒了自己地”。

           隨著5G、人工智能、物聯網、大數據等新技術的快速發展,以及中日韓同步改革的深化,三國的技術和制度創新齊頭并進,新技術新產業領先世界。依托RCEP約35億人口的大市場,亞洲的新技術、新產業、新產品標準必將得到市場認可,由此,“數字貿易”必將在這一廣闊區域自然形成,推動世界“數字經濟中心”東移至亞洲。這樣,中日韓合作就不得不考慮得更長遠、更廣泛一些,兼顧未來WTO改革,使之能蓋得住經濟形態、貿易形式數字化的要求。(作者是中國現代國際關系研究院研究員)

          

          

            進入專題: 中日韓  

        本文責編:陳冬冬
        發信站:愛思想(http://www.2sungmin.com),欄目:天益學術 > 國際關系 > 國際關系時評
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        文章來源:環球時報

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