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        賀陽:民營企業是我國凈出口和創匯的頂梁柱

        選擇字號:   本文共閱讀 763 次 更新時間:2019-08-19 22:46:56

        進入專題: 國有企業   民營企業  

        賀陽 (進入專欄)  

          

           昨天看到“老蠻在此/數據總站”(以下簡稱“老蠻”)的一篇文章“中國外貿凈出口全景圖”,其中列出的詳細數據和所作的簡要分析很有說服力,值得國人深思。

           按照經濟學定義,凈出口是指對外貿易的差額。凈出口為正值,說明出口大于進口,體現為貿易順差;凈出口為負值,則是進口大于出口,體現為貿易逆差。我國近些年來外匯儲備之所以大幅度增加,其主要原因,在于多年保持貿易順差、凈出口年年為正,而且數額相當可觀。

           在這篇文章中,老蠻先是詳細列出了2008到2018這11年間民營、國有和外資這三類企業每年各自的出口、進口和凈出口數據,以及三者分別在各年總凈出口中的占比。毋庸諱言,這三類企業在總凈出口中的占比,也就是它們各自對國家凈出口和“凈掙外匯”的貢獻度。

           “不看不知道,一看嚇一跳”——從數據看,這11年間民營企業的貢獻的確大得驚人,國有企業的業績確實差得出奇!這里我僅從該文中分別摘出2008、2015和2018三年的數據,即可對這種令人咋舌的差距略見一斑。

          

           民營、國有和外資企業凈出口能力的對比(單位:億美元)

          

           出口  進口  凈出口  總凈出口  在總凈出口中的占比

           2008年

           民企    5466  2888   2578      2981       86.5%

           國企    2572  3538   -966                 -32.4%

           外企    7905  6194   1711                  64.7%

           2015年

           民企    9738  4116   5622      5939        94.7%

           國企    2424  4078   -1654                  -27.8%

           外企    10046 8288   1758                   29.6%

           2018年

           民企    11405 5013   5288       3518        150.3%

           國企    2573  5474   -2901                  -82.5%

           外企    10360 9321   1039                    29.5%

          

           需要說明的是,民營、國有和外資企業三者在各年總凈出口中的占比之和略低于100%,是因為除去上述三類企業之外,還有集體企業等其他類型企業的數值沒有列入。

           從統計數據可以清晰地看到,2008年到2018年,國有企業的凈出口始終都是負值,說明這11年間它都是貿易逆差的創造者。造成這種狀況的主要原因,在于國有企業全面壟斷了鋼材、煤炭、石油以及糧食等大宗商品的進口權,進口后將這些大宗商品轉手賣出賺取差價,這種壟斷權已經足以確保這部分國企一本萬利地過日子;而其他的國有企業效率低下,生產物美價廉、適應國際市場最終消費品的能力極差……

           隨著這種“畸形”狀況的發展,10年后的2018年,國有企業創造的凈貿易逆差達到2901億美元,同2008年的966億美元相比,竟然翻了一番多!

           我之所以摘列出2015年的數據,是因為這一年民營

           企業和外資企業創造的凈出口都達到了各自的歷史峰值,即5622億美元和1758億美元。其后至今的幾年,由于“國進民退”和民營企業受到各種形式的抑制,由于不少民營企業倒閉、被“混合”和外遷,其出口和凈出口業績逐年下降;由于大同小異的因素,外資企業的出口和凈出口也同時逐年下降……

           近兩三年來我曾經不止一次地分析過國有企業在一般競爭性一般營利性領域大量吞噬社會資源、低效率、腐敗叢生和創造財富能力的欠缺,從老蠻列出的三類企業凈出口和凈創匯的數值及其巨大差距可以看出,和創造社會財富一樣,我們國家這些年來凈出口和外匯儲備的大量增加,主要靠的也是民營企業和外資企業,國有企業即便不說是業績奇差,至少也是屢拖國民經濟和對外經濟貿易的后腿。

           在中美貿易戰愈演愈烈,在面臨新冷戰的強大壓力之下,我們切不可因為某些政治、意識形態的偏見和各種既得利益的束縛,在一般競爭性一般營利性國有企業去留的關鍵性問題上繼續抱殘守缺、貽誤改革時機,給自己造成越來越大的被動。為了國家民族和億萬百姓的前途、命運和福祉,盡快啟動國有企業退出一般競爭性一般營利性領域這項最根本最關鍵的改革吧!

          

           2019年1月31日

          

        進入 賀陽 的專欄     進入專題: 國有企業   民營企業  

        本文責編:limei
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