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        田飛龍:大阪G20和解的意義與限度

        選擇字號:   本文共閱讀 455 次 更新時間:2019-07-30 10:31:56

        田飛龍 (進入專欄)  

           到底是G20,還是G2?這在當代全球治理領域是一個關鍵性、敏感性議題。盡管“G2”的概念早有人炒作,但中國似乎不愿意陷入這一概念陷阱,尤其是這一概念隱含著演變為“修昔底德陷阱”的重大風險。中國的全球治理觀偏向于平等協商和多元共治,因而實質偏向于“G20”,因為這樣的全球治理框架更有國際政治代表性,也更能夠為世界各國尤其是G20內部的多元化強國所接受。中國歷來奉行多邊主義,自然不可能簡單認同“G2”的去多元化框架。但從客觀實力及影響力而言,在任何多元框架中,“G2”都有著舉足輕重和結構性、方向性的意義。    

           大阪G20同樣如此。盡管此次峰會的議題仍然是多元的,議程也是多元的,但最引人矚目的必然是中美貿易談判,是習近平和特朗普的“二人轉”。從會議結果來看,中美元首共同決定重啟貿易談判,各自釋放出相當程度的善意。比如習近平表示將增加美國產品進口及加快國內有關管制制度改革,并回憶包括“乒乓外交”在內的中美友好的歷史情節,而特朗普則表示愿意尊重中國的核心關切及平等訴求,愿意考慮華為問題的解決方案,愿意繼續推進貿易談判直到達成協議。此次元首會晤沒有任何具體貿易協議,但確實實現了重要的政治和解,消除了某些“脫鉤論”的嚴峻對立及陰謀論推斷,共同推進了兩國無比艱難的貿易談判進程。  

           中美和解的戰略性意義是凸顯的:其一,對世界經濟而言,這是一個利好消息,世界經濟穩定發展有可能獲得中美合作因素的再保證;其二,對中美之外的廣泛第三方而言,這也是一個利好消息,不必為了中美升級貿易戰甚至更高沖突而選邊站隊,生意可以繼續一起做,基本和平與發展共存的良性秩序有望得到維持;其三,為中國改革闖關及繼續發展提供進一步的時空條件,長遠來看有助于民族復興,有助于中國繼續修補技術和制度漏洞,強健經濟和政治體格,為應對未來更強烈復雜的國際政治挑戰做好準備;其四,和解有助于特朗普回應國內選民壓力及連任預期,也有助于緩和美國對華敵意,盡管難以從根本上消除這種敵意;其五,中美和解后的協議框架可能成為美國與其他貿易對手談判的基準,而不是過分“美國化”的美墨加協議成為基準,因此中國的堅持也就具有了代表國際社會共同維權及爭取正義的戰略性意義。      

           這一和解是中國堅持原則和斗爭換來的。如果按照美方原初協議照單全收,中國將被迫放棄“中國制造2025”計劃及接受美國過于苛刻、不平等的監督機制及單方制裁權。中國的立場必然是其國家利益和政治體制基本原則的反映,可以有具體利益權衡下的妥協,但不可能放棄政治自主權及長遠發展利益。當代中國政府不是晚清政府,中國與世界的新關系也完全不同于晚清外交格局。美國所面臨的談判對手不是曾經的“東亞病夫”,也不是1980年代受其保護的日本,甚至不是社會主義的蘇聯,而是文明基礎深厚、民族復興意志飽滿、全球治理意愿凸顯的復興大國,有著作為世界“主要列強”的硬實力和超越傳統列強范式的文明政治取向。美國應當也不得不逐步適應中國的這一新角色。從特朗普的峰會立場來看,美國在中國的自主抗爭下已經在調整和尊重的方向上有所改進。

           但我們不可能就此樂觀期待中美貿易戰的終結,也不可能就此期待美國重返多邊主義全球治理框架。大阪G20的中美和解必然存在著嚴重的局限性:其一,“美國優先”的特朗普主義并未更改,美國在內部選舉政治及中國抗爭下的暫時性妥協不能理解為結構性轉變,因此未來任何貿易協議都不可能作為中美關系的唯一可靠保證;其二,中國民族復興的國家性目標與人類命運共同體的全球治理目標不可能改變,隨著中國技術主權的升級以及全球治理的實踐性成果,中美圍繞全球治理權的爭奪將更加激烈,緩和的空間及余地不大,除非美國選擇承認中國崛起與中國模式的正當性;其三,中美之外的第三方在積極尋求自保性框架,不希望在中美持續性沖突中利益受損,隨著第三方力量的增強與政策的自主化,中美協議的調控力和影響力可能受到一定的限制;其四,美國經濟刺激效果可能逐步消退,“特朗普經濟學”尤其是關稅主義可能面臨挫折與失敗,從而刺激美國國內政治與社會矛盾上升,推動其進一步的逆全球化與民主民粹化,這些來自美國的風險因素可能再次波及中美協議及全球治理穩定性;其五,一定程度和概率下的地區戰爭風險(比如伊朗、烏克蘭等)有可能在經濟下行嚴重時爆發,大國之間的脆弱和平可能遭遇危機,全球治理共識與制度基礎將進一步遭受侵蝕。      

           總之,大阪G20和解帶來了中美貿易協議新的契機,也對全球經濟穩定發展帶來利好影響,更為中國全面改革開放贏得短暫但關鍵的戰略機遇期。然而,中美結構性競爭態勢已經形成,二戰后國際法秩序及全球治理框架面臨美國因素的倒退性影響,這導致此次和解效應必然是有限的,甚至是短期的,可能存在反復性和不確定性。中國的主權、安全和發展利益更加理性自覺,因此無論是貿易談判還是后協議的風險應對,中國會更加自信、自主和從容。或許世界和平發展的關鍵已經轉移到美國角色的變遷上,即美國可否真正接受中國崛起事實及中國模式正當性,放棄單邊主義和唯一霸權訴求,轉型為21世紀和平發展的建設性力量。美國若轉型成功,中國之幸,世界之福,否則將陷入長時段的高風險斗爭及不確定性之中。即便出現最糟糕情形,中國發展及全球治理前景仍將渡盡劫波,柳暗花明,因為中國所代表的和平發展價值與路線是正義且富有生命力的。                    

                

          

           (原載中美聚焦網2019年7月27日,作者系北京航空航天大學高研院/法學院副教授,中央社會主義學院統一戰線高端智庫駐站研究員,法學博士)  

        進入 田飛龍 的專欄

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